Electric vehicle sales in Brazil to take off in coming years

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in Brazil are expected to increase significantly, reaching around 35 million vehicles by 2040 – and the increased use of EVs will likely lead to a big decrease in fossil fuel consumption.

EV sales in Brazil are expected to surge from 2027 onward, according to a report from Strategy&. The pace of electrification, however, will be influenced by various factors such as the availability of EV models, particularly in the commercial sector, and the development of vehicle charging infrastructure.

The study by Strategy& – a global strategic consulting firm – analyzes the rise of EVs in Brazil and the decrease in the use of fossil fuels that is expected to accompanying it. By 2040, the country’s total diesel consumption is projected to decrease by an incredible 66% and gasoline use will fall by 59%.

Daniel Martins, a partner at Strategy&, noted that “thinking about the future is one of the main points of discussion for this agenda,” and that the transportation industry is increasingly concerned about sustainability and the shift towards low-carbon operations.

Significant growth in the sale of electric heavy trucks and passenger transit vehicles is also expected. The report predicts that by 2030, there will be 79% more electrified heavy trucks and 47% more electric passenger transit vehicles. Those numbers could jump to a remarkable 97% and 66%, respectively.

In mid-2022, Brazil surpassed 100,000 electric vehicles on the road for the first time. The growth in sales of EVs in the past 10 years has been steady and the country is destined to become a major market soon. Just last year, Chinese EV manufacturer BYD announced they would begin selling two of their vehicles in Brazil, one hybrid and one full electric, to be imported at first but with an eye to potentially manufacturing them domestically in due time.

Despite this, some obstacles – like the scant distribution of recharging points across the country – need to be overcome in order for this growth to be realized. The installation of charging points has also stalled in other, more developed countries like the United Kingdom.

Another potential hurdle to more EVs on the road in the coming years will be shortages in materials that are essential in manufacturing them. Lithium and other metals required for EV batteries are projected to be in extremely short supply in just a few years if mining and recycling is not dramatically increased.

Newly-elected progressive president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now at the wheel in Brazil – and he has made major promises to transform the country’s environmental policies. Lula wants to turn the country into a green superpower, with ambitious plans to cut emissions and modernized the automotive industry, in addition to even loftier goals like ending deforestation in the Amazon.

Brazil is not alone in aiming high in their plans for sustainable transformation: For example, the EU’s Green Deal is a massive overhaul that is likely to cost over €1 trillion and could reach every facet of society in the union. Saudi Arabia also has similar ambitions with its Vision 2030 plan, designed as a roadmap to steer the economy away from oil.